All said and done, President Trump was an exceptionally influential factor in the OPEC deliberations, much to Iran’s annoyance. The OPEC countries were no doubt thankful Trump’s threatening tweets during their Vienna meeting were aimed at the Germans and the European Union. This Trump factor drew nearly as much attention in the both the meeting itself and on the sidelines as the actual agreement. It is widely understood, for instance, that some countries put the one million figure into the media primarily to deflect or at least delay public tweets or comments by President Trump during the OPEC meeting that would have seriously undermined the fragile consensus that Saudi and Russian officials , who were pushing for a higher level of 1.5 million bpd , were struggling to pull together.

 

Iran was the primary hold-out, though its anger over the US factor is widely shared by the other non-GCC OPEC members like Venezuela. At one point , Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh threatened to derail the deal altogether as he stormed out of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting after being denied the floor to question the estimated supply shortfalls.

 

Iran was also understood to have demanded the final OPEC statement to include a formal OPEC condemnation of US sanctions being imposed on OPEC member countries, which Tehran clearly did not get.    

 

Dark cloud 

There is another concern hanging like a dark cloud over OPEC going forward: not only is the close Saudi and Gulf attention to US desires for low oil prices amid the confrontation with Iran a factor, but so is the US threat to press ahead with the “No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act,” or NOPEC bill. The bill, which proposes making the cartel subject to the Sherman antitrust laws, has been stalled in Congress since 2007. 

 

Both President Bush and President Obama threatened to veto the bill for its threat to commerce and international relations in potentially tying up a few dozen other countries as defendants in US courts and US lawyers seeking damages.

 

President Trump, however, is much more of a wild card, and could voice his support for the bill especially if oil prices continue to top to the $80 levels. 

 

The odds that NOPEC passes are small but rising. Neither House Speaker Paul Ryan nor Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell were in positions of power when a similar bill passed both houses of Congress in 2007 with strong margins. Majority Leader McConnell is an internationalist by experience and stubborn by nature, and may move to block the bill. 

 

Analysts are uncertain whether retiring Speaker Paul Ryan, who is now a lame duck, will stand against the pressure to schedule a House vote, especially if the President is pushing for the bill. The US legislative threat, as damaging as it might be more broadly if it ever became law, is nevertheless likely to hang over the next round of OPEC deliberations in September, especially if prices are again surging. If this happens, then the future of OPEC itself as an organisation will be under threat and it may pave the way for a new international energy realignment between countries, especially between Saudi Arabia and Russia to go their own way, along with a few like-minded Gulf allies.

 

For the time being, OPEC has served its purpose as a useful venue for compromise but the fractures are there.