AMMAN — Jordan’s economy is expected to grow by 1.8 per cent and 2 per cent in 2021 and 2022 respectively, according to a World Bank report.

 

Economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa is forecast to recover modestly to 2.1 per cent in 2021, reflecting the lasting damage from the pandemic and low oil prices, according to the report seen by The Jordan Times.

 

The recovery is contingent on containment of the pandemic, stabilising oil prices, no further escalation of geopolitical tensions, and the assumption of a vaccine rollout in the second half of the year.

 

By 2022, after two years of expected recovery, output is still about 8 per cent below the output projected prior to the pandemic, with a larger impact on oil importers than exporters.

 

Among oil exporters, growth is expected to recover to 1.8 per cent this year, supported by normalising oil demand, the scheduled easing of the OPEC+ oil production cuts, policy support, and the gradual phasing out of domestic pandemic-related restrictions.

 

Growth in oil importers is expected to rebound to 3.2 per cent in 2021 as mobility restrictions are gradually eased and exports and domestic demand recover slowly.

 

The COVID-19 pandemic caused output losses in the region of an estimated 5 per cent in 2020. Employment losses spiked in many economies and employment remains depressed. The income shock from the pandemic is expected to increase the number of people below the $5.50 per day poverty line in the region by tens of millions this year.

 

Meanwhile, risks are tilted to the downside and are related to the trajectory of the pandemic and its social impacts, downward pressure on oil prices, domestic political uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

 

Mitigation measures have been re-imposed in parts of some countries (Algeria, Jordan, Lebanon) and may become more widespread, given that about a third of MENA’s economies are seeing an accelerating pace of new infections in late 2020.