AMMAN — As Syria cautiously enters a post-war phase, one unresolved issue continues to dominate the current debate: the Kurdish question.

 

Shifting power balances, renewed international engagement and fragile internal dynamics have revived speculation. Could Syria move towards a form of Kurdish semi-autonomy similar to that in neighbouring Iraq?

 

For more than a decade, Syrian Kurds have exercised de facto self-administration across large parts of the northeast. These structures emerged as state authority receded during the civil war and the fight against the Daesh terror group. With military backing from the US-led coalition, Kurdish-led forces became a key partner in defeating the extremist group. They consolidated control over territory and local governance.

 

Yet control on the ground has not translated into recognised political autonomy. Syria remains, by constitutional definition, a highly centralised state. Successive governments in Damascus have rejected federalism. They argue it threatens national unity and territorial integrity.

 

The Iraqi experience continues to frame regional comparisons. In Iraq, Kurdish autonomy developed gradually after 2003. It was driven by international intervention, power-sharing arrangements and constitutional guarantees. Syria, by contrast, lacks a similar political framework. The country also remains deeply fractured after more than a decade of conflict.

 

Political analyst Amer Sabaileh warned against drawing direct parallels between the two cases.

 

“The Iraqi model is often cited, but the Syrian case is fundamentally different,” he said.

 

“There may be similarities in the Kurdish issue or in representation based on ethnicity or sect. But Syria has its own social and political dynamics.”

 

He pointed to Syria’s exposure to regional politics and its relationship with Iran. “The core problem is the absence of a clear political roadmap. There is no formula for a solution.”

 

While Sabaileh highlighted the political deadlock, military analyst Nidal Abu Zaid argueed that realities on the ground are already narrowing the Kurdish-led forces’ options.

 

Abu Zaid said recent developments have significantly altered the balance of power.

 

Damascus and Kurdish forces reached a comprehensive agreement on Friday to gradually integrate the Kurds' military and civilian institutions into the state, after the minority ceded territory to advancing government forces in recent weeks.

 

The Syrian government forces have been fighting an offensive in the north of the country against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) over recent weeks.

 

“The Syrian government has broken the operational balance with the Kurdish-led SDF,” Abu Zaid said. “It retook areas of strategic weight, including oil fields, key bridges and locations that once formed the SDF’s centre of gravity.”

 

He said Damascus also succeeded in cutting the SDF off from key tribal allies in eastern Syria.

 

“The SDF lost critical backing in Deir Ezzor and Raqqa. This includes the Shammar tribe and the Sanadid Forces.”

 

He added that the loss weakened the group’s operational momentum and shrank its geographic reach, now largely confined to areas along the Turkish border, including Qamishli and Ain Al Arab (Kobani).

 

Syrian government forces started entering the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli on Tuesday under an integration deal agreed with the Kurds last week, AFP reported, quoting state media.

 

The move comes after security personnel entered the mixed Kurdish-Arab city of Hasakeh and the countryside around the Kurdish town of Kobane a day earlier, as part of the comprehensive agreement to gradually integrate Kurdish forces and institutions into the state, according to AFP.

 

According to Abu Zaid, the SDF has also lost much of its negotiating leverage.

 

“It [SDF] no longer controls strategic control points or tribal support. It has also lost the detention facilities it once used to pressure Washington.”

 

This, he argued, explains the group’s acceptance of the August 11 agreement and its integration into the Syrian army as dispersed units rather than a single bloc.

 

Turkey, he added, has played a decisive role.

 

“Ankara will not accept a separatist pocket near its borders,” Abu Zaid said, pointing to concerns over PKK-linked fighters.

 

For observers, an Iraq-style federal region is unlikely in the near term, given the sharp difference between Syria’s political culture and security environment differ sharply from Iraq’s post-2003 context.

 

Yet the current ambiguity is also unsustainable, they argued.