AMMAN — Jordan’s economy is expected to maintain steady growth despite the economic fallout from the war in the Middle East, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) keeping its growth forecasts for the Kingdom unchanged while sharply downgrading its outlook for the wider region.

 

In its October 2026 Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia, released on Thursday, the IMF projected Jordan’s economy to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2026, accelerating to 3.1 per cent in 2027.

 

Both forecasts remain unchanged from the Fund’s projections issued in April.

 

The IMF also revised its estimate of Jordan’s economic growth in 2025 upward to 2.8 per cent, from its previous estimate of 2.7 per cent, according to the report.

 

The projections highlight Jordan’s relative economic resilience amid regional instability, which has disrupted energy production, shipping, tourism and trade, while weighing on business confidence across the Middle East.

 

The global lender attributed Jordan’s medium-term growth prospects to continued economic reforms, efforts to maintain macroeconomic stability and increased spending on infrastructure. It also noted that economic activity in the Kingdom had generally maintained a pace close to that recorded in the second half of 2025.

 

Jordan among resilient regional economies

 

Jordan was grouped with Egypt, Morocco, Pakistan and Tunisia as economies that have demonstrated resilience in the face of the regional conflict.

 

According to the IMF, oil-importing economies have generally weathered the economic shock better than oil exporters directly affected by disruptions to energy production and shipping.

 

Resilience among oil importers has been supported by domestic demand, workers’ remittances, tourism activity and favorable financial conditions. Prompt policy responses have also helped limit the extent to which higher commodity prices have been passed on to consumers.

 

Jordan’s unchanged growth outlook stands in contrast to the Fund’s revised projections for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAP), where economic output is now expected to contract by 1.3 per cent in 2026.

 

The projection represents a downward revision of 2.7 percentage points from the IMF’s April outlook, which had forecast regional growth of 1.4 per cent.

 

The deterioration reflects the effects of the war on energy production, shipping, tourism, trade and economic confidence, with oil-exporting economies directly affected by disruptions experiencing a sharp slowdown in activity.

 

Despite the expected contraction this year, the IMF projects the MENAP region to rebound with growth of 6.6 per cent in 2027, assuming the conflict eases in early 2027 and trade gradually returns to normal throughout the year.

 

The projected recovery is expected to be driven largely by a sharp rebound in economic activity among Gulf oil exporters. However, the Fund cautioned that output in these economies would generally remain below levels anticipated before the conflict over the medium term.

 

For oil-importing economies, including Jordan, growth is expected to accelerate over 2026 and 2027, supported by resilient domestic demand as inflationary pressures ease following the initial shock from higher commodity prices.

 

The IMF also warned that further disruptions to energy production could worsen the regional outlook, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding the pace of recovery.

 

Risks remain despite resilience

 

The report pointed to diminishing economic buffers across the region, with external positions weakening in most MENAP and Caucasus and Central Asia economies.

 

Inflation is projected to rise across MENAP in 2026, while some governments have relied on subsidies, price controls and fixed exchange rates to limit the impact of higher prices on consumers. Such measures, however, carry fiscal costs.

 

For Jordan, the IMF’s projections suggest that continued reforms, macroeconomic stability and infrastructure investment will remain important to sustaining growth amid regional uncertainty.