Israel today confronts a fundamental trilemma at the heart of its state-building project: the relationship between land, people, and sovereign authority. Driven increasingly by a religious-nationalist political camp, the state is working to entrench its identity as a “Jewish nation-state.” Yet this goal is constrained by four enduring realities: the persistent Palestinian demographic presence, internationally disputed borders, obligations under international law, and deep internal societal fragmentation.

 

At the core of the modern Israeli ideological project lies a biblical-historical narrative that has evolved into a political doctrine of territorial expansion. This logic, analysed by scholars such as Patrick Wolfe, reflects a settler-colonial approach that seeks not only control of land, but the marginalisation – and in some cases replacement – of its indigenous population. Over the decades, this project has unfolded in three major phases: the 1948 establishment of the state and Palestinian displacement (the Nakba), the 1967 occupation of additional territories, and the post-Oslo era of creeping annexation under the guise of a “peace process.”

 

The current war on Gaza has accelerated these dynamics. In the West Bank, Israel is shifting from what analyst Eman Bdawi describes as “occupation management” to “annexation management,” using legal and administrative tools to create irreversible facts on the ground. The objective is to make a viable Palestinian state geographically impossible, reframing the conflict from a political question to a demographic challenge to be contained.

 

The greatest barrier to the creation of a homogeneous Jewish ethno-state remains the Palestinian people themselves. Around 7.6 million Palestinians live under Israeli control between the river and the sea, alongside millions of refugees with an internationally recognised right of return. The 2018 Nation-State Law, which constitutionally enshrines Jewish supremacy, directly contradicts this demographic reality and further undermines Israel’s claims to democratic governance.

 

Meanwhile, Israel faces an internal identity crisis. Former President Reuven Rivlin warned of a society divided into “four tribes”—secular Zionists, religious nationalists, Haredim, and Arab citizens—each with competing visions for the state’s future. The political rise of the religious right is rooted in mobilising Jewish demographic anxieties while marginalising Arab citizens and advancing policies, including attacks on UNRWA, aimed at erasing the Palestinian refugee question altogether.

 

Under the long tenure of Benjamin Netanyahu, this ideological shift has become institutionalised. The religious-nationalist camp has consolidated power across state institutions, sidelined the secular left, and normalised an approach that elevates control of the “Land of Israel” above international norms. This project is advanced through rapid settlement expansion, education system shifts, and a security discourse that frames permanent conflict as existential.

 

Strategic Implications and Regional Risks

 

Israel’s trajectory toward a de facto single, illiberal state between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean carries profound consequences. For Palestinians, it signals a future of permanent disenfranchisement, deepening inequality, and fragmented enclaves governed by varying levels of Israeli control. For Jordan, the risks are acute. They include renewed regional discussions of population “transfer,” the collapse of the two-state framework that anchors Jordan’s national security, direct challenges to its custodianship of Jerusalem’s holy sites, and the possibility of new waves of displacement. For Israel itself, this path entails perpetual conflict, worsening international isolation, and the erosion of democratic institutions in favor of an ethnocratic order.