Modern history has witnessed pivotal moments that revealed profound shifts in the international balance of power. The Suez Crisis of 1956 was one of the most prominent of these moments. The tripartite aggression against Egypt by Britain, France, and Israel constituted a historical turning point that not only revealed the limits of the aggressor states' military power but also effectively heralded the beginning of the decline of British and French imperial influence and the birth of a new era of American hegemony over the international system. However, as many thinkers and historians point out, history unfolds in successive cycles, whereby great powers rise and then begin to decline when their economic and political capabilities exceed their natural limits.

 

 

 

The British historian Paul Kennedy recognized this fact when he wrote in his famous book, "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers": “Great powers collapse when their military commitments exceed their economic capabilities.” This principle became evident during the Suez Crisis, when Britain and France found themselves unable to impose their will despite their relative military superiority, due to global economic and political shifts and pressure from the United States and the Soviet Union. That moment represented an unofficial declaration of the end of the era of traditional European empires and the transfer of the international center of gravity to the United States.

 

However, the idea of power cycles is not new in political thought. Centuries ago, the Arab thinker Ibn Khaldun wrote in his Muqaddimah that states go through life cycles similar to human life, stating, “states have natural lifespans just as people do.” A state is founded on strength and cohesion, and then reaches the peak of its power, before entering a phase of extravagance and excessive expansion, which ultimately leads to decline. The trajectory of modern empires, from Britain to the United States, can be interpreted in light of this historical theory.

 

In the same vein, the British historian Arnold Toynbee, in his famous study of civilizations, pointed out that great nation's fall when they fail to respond to new challenges, saying: “Civilizations are not killed, they commit suicide.” This statement encapsulates many of the transformations the international system has undergone in recent decades, as policies of military expansion and protracted wars have exhausted many major powers.

 

Following the end of World War II, the United States emerged as the dominant power in the international system, benefiting from the decline of traditional European powers. This role was reinforced with the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, leading the world to believe that the international system had entered an era of absolute American hegemony. However, this hegemony began to face increasing challenges at the beginning of the 21st century, particularly after the series of wars waged by the United States in the Middle East and Asia.

 

The German thinker Oswald Spengler warned in his book, "The Decline of the West", that great civilizations enter a stage of decline when they rely excessively on military power rather than economic and cultural vitality. Spengler argues that civilizations, like living organisms, pass through stages of growth, zenith, and decline. Many of the tensions plaguing the international system today can be understood within this context.

 

In his book, "The Collapse of Complex Societies,” by American scholar Joseph Tainter asserts that large political systems can collapse when the cost of maintaining their complexity outweighs the benefits they provide. As empires expand and their military and political commitments increase, it becomes increasingly difficult for them to maintain their internal and external equilibrium.

 

American historian Jared Diamond, in his book "Collapse", points out that civilizations do not fall suddenly, but rather as a result of a long accumulation of political, economic, and environmental crises, eroding their capacity to adapt to major transformations.

 

Within the framework of analyzing the international system, American political scientist Robert Gilpin argues that the global order changes when the dominant power's ability to maintain the system it established diminishes. In this context, he writes that "international hegemony does not last forever; it changes with shifts in economic and political power."

 

From another perspective, American scholar Graham Allison introduced the concept of the "Thucydides Trap," which refers to the tension that arises when a new power emerges to challenge a dominant one. This concept has become widely used to understand the escalating rivalry between the United States and China in the contemporary international system.

 

The Israeli-American war on Iran in 2026, and its accompanying regional and international repercussions, reflect in many ways these profound shifts in the international system. This confrontation, occurring amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East, revealed the limits of America's ability to impose its will absolutely, as was the case in previous decades. The new international balances of power, and the rise of major powers like China and Russia, have made it difficult for any single power to dominate the international system as it did in the post-Cold War era.

 

The American thinker Ray Dalio, in his study on the cycles of great powers, pointed out that history witnesses recurring shifts in the centers of global power, writing: “Empires rise when they are economically strong and internally cohesive, and begin to decline when debts accumulate and internal conflicts escalate.”

 

What we are witnessing today may be the beginning of a new phase in international history, as the world gradually moves toward a multipolar system in which major powers share influence and power. China, which has become a major economic and technological power, seeks to bolster its global presence, while Russia attempts to reassert its position as an influential strategic force in the international system.

 

In this context, a war with Iran could represent a pivotal moment, similar to the Suez Crisis seventy years ago. Just as the Suez Crisis revealed the end of British imperial influence, the transformations underway today may reveal the end of an era of absolute American hegemony. This does not necessarily mean the disappearance of the American role from the international system, but rather its shift from a position of sole dominance to one of the major poles in a more balanced global order.

 

Ibn Khaldun wrote centuries ago, that laws and cycles govern history, and that no matter how powerful a state may be, it does not remain at the height of its glory forever. In light of the transformations the world is witnessing today, it seems that the international system is once again on the cusp of a new transitional phase, one that may redraw the map of global power for decades to come.