United Nations Security Council Resolution 2803 is destined to fail. That failure will come at a price: more Palestinian deaths, extensive destruction, and the expansion of Israeli violence to the West Bank and elsewhere in the Middle East.

 

The resolution, passed on November 14, 2025, was a consolation prize to Israel after failing to achieve its ultimate objective from the two-year Gaza genocide: the ethnic cleansing of the population and the complete takeover of the Gaza Strip.

 

Gaza shattered a core Israeli doctrine: the absolute certainty of its military supremacy to subdue the Palestinian people using far superior US and Western-supplied technology. Though the occupation was never expected to be easy, as Israel's history of violence in the Strip attests, the complete takeover was, in the mind of the Israeli leadership, a certainty. In August, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated with total confidence that Israel aimed to “take control of all of Gaza.” That proved to be wishful thinking.

 

How Israel has failed to subdue an impoverished and besieged population of 2 million people, subjected to a blockade, a famine, and one of the world's most horrific genocides, is a question for future historians. The immediate consequence, however, is political: Israel and its Western backers, especially the US, understand that an utter Israeli failure in Gaza would be interpreted by Israel's victims as a pivotal sign of the times.

 

In fact, the notion of Israel's implosion and the end of the Zionist project has moved from the margins of intellectual conversation into the center. These ideas are bolstered by the Israelis themselves and are a recurring topic in Israeli media. Such a headline in Haaretz on November 15 is hardly shocking: "At a Secret Harvard Site, a Massive Archive of Israeliana Is Preserved, in Case Israel Ceases to Exist".

 

Thus, US President Donald Trump's so-called "Comprehensive Stabilization Plan for Gaza," signed in Sharm el-Sheikh on October 30, 2025, was the official start of the American scheme to save Israel from its own blunders. That supposed 'ceasefire' was meant to give Israel the chance to maneuver. Instead of occupying all of Gaza and pushing Palestinians out, Israel would now use social and political engineering to achieve the same goal.

 

The first phase of the plan, which placed most of Gaza under Israeli military control in anticipation of a gradual withdrawal, is already proving to be a sham. As of the time of writing this article, Israel, according to the Gaza government media office, has violated the agreement nearly 400 times, killing over 300 Palestinians. Israel continues to systematically demolish Palestinian areas and has increasingly begun operating west of the Yellow Line, which separates Gaza into two regions.

 

Worse still, according to Gaza authorities, Israel has been expanding its share of Gaza, estimated at approximately 58 percent, westward. The 'ceasefire' has effectively enforced a new mechanism that allows Israel to carry out a one-sided war, with further territorial expansion, destruction, assassination, and occasional massacres, while Palestinians expect nothing but the mere slowing down of the Israeli death machine. This is not sustainable, especially since Israel has also violated the most basic principle of the imaginary ceasefire: allowing vital aid to enter Gaza.

 

UNSC 2803 endorses the "Comprehensive Stabilization Plan for Gaza" without placing any legally binding expectations on Israel. It establishes a Transitional Administration and Oversight Council (TAOC), which entirely excludes Palestinians, including the Western-supported Palestinian Authority.

 

The executive branch of this TAOC would be the International Stabilization Force (ISF), whose sole job is to “stabilize the security environment in Gaza” on behalf of Israel, notably by disarming Palestinian groups. The ISF, according to the resolution, operates “in close consultation and cooperation,” meaning the force is tasked with achieving Israel's military objectives, thereby allowing Israel to determine the timing and nature of its supposed gradual withdrawal.

 

Since Palestinians refuse to disarm – as unconditional disarmament without meaningful international guarantees would surely lead to the full return of the Israeli genocide – Israel will certainly refuse to leave Gaza. Netanyahu made that clear on November 16, when he stated that “Israel would not withdraw” without disarming Hamas, “either the easy way or the hard way”.

 

The partition of Gaza is a US-led attempt to change the nature of the challenge for Tel Aviv, but ultimately aims at achieving the same original objectives. The resolution has served Israel's interests fully, hence Netanyahu's enthusiasm, yet Israel is still refusing to respect it, making it clear there will be no phase two of Trump's original plan.

 

The entire political scheme, however, is doomed to fail. Though Palestinian suffering will certainly worsen in the coming months, the US-Israeli gambit is fundamentally flawed: it is built on trickery and coercion, resting on the false assumption that Palestinians, fearing genocide, will accept any plan imposed on them. This premise ignores history. Palestinians have consistently defeated such sophisticated mechanisms designed to break them, meaning this new arrangement is equally unsustainable.

 

Ultimately, the failure of UNSC Resolution 2803 confirms one enduring truth: the Israeli war on Gaza has not stopped. It has simply changed form. It is crucial that people around the world understand this next phase for what it is: a diplomatic maneuver designed to facilitate the ongoing Israeli plan to control the Gaza Strip and ethnically cleanse its population.

 

Ramzy Baroud is a journalist, author and the Editor of The Palestine Chronicle. He is the author of six books. His forthcoming book, ‘Before the Flood,’ will be published by Seven Stories Press. His other books include ‘Our Vision for Liberation’, ‘My Father was a Freedom Fighter’ and ‘The Last Earth’. Baroud is a Non-resident Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA).