There was no rapture because Kenyan President William Ruto’s government angered Sudan and sparked protests. It was also opposed domestically, with Kenyan politicians and activists denouncing their government’s decision to embrace the RSF and its allies given its record of human rights violations. Moreover, holding these meetings in Nairobi sets a dangerous precedent that legitimizes non-state actors seeking to establish a parallel government. In hosting them, the Kenyan government has blatantly violated another country’s sovereignty and international and regional agreements.

 

In reality, all the arrangements being “cooked up” in Nairobi seem geared towards boosting the RSF’s standing and cover for its successive defeats: the loss of its positions in Al-Jazira, central Sudan, other areas on the eastern and southern outskirts, then Khartoum. Indeed, all the RSF has left is its stronghold in Darfur and pockets in Kordofan. In response to these losses, the RSF leadership and its backers have sought new allies, specifically the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) led by Abdelaziz al-Hilu and the faction of the Sudan Liberation Movement led by Abdel Wahid Mohamed Nur. While the RSF has managed to reach an agreement with the former, on his terms, progress on a deal with the latter remains stalled.

 

As the RSF leadership and its allies scrambled to get Hilu on their side at any cost, his terms left a clear mark on the talks in Nairobi. In addition to the adoption of his stance on secularism, which has become a central feature of the transition constitution, his imprint is also evident in the provision concerning the division of Sudan’s states and how certain regions were redrawn. A crisis was sparked, with protests erupting in West Kordofan, as soon as news spread that the document included the abolition of West Kordofan State, which is split between North and South Kordofan (renamed the Nuba Mountains Region).

 

The expectation is that the transitional constitution will be followed by the formation of a parallel government. Its proponents sometimes claim this government will be formed to facilitate the delivery of services in RSF-controlled areas, and at others, they suggest that the goal is to challenge the legitimacy of the current government. Meanwhile, some of their supporters go so far as to present it as a government that will lay the foundations of a new Sudan, allowing the country to rise from the ashes of what they call "the 1956 state" (the year the country obtained its independence).

 

I do not know what legitimacy the supporters of this parallel government hope to attain. Do destruction, killing, rape, looting, and the displacement of citizens from their homes reinforce one’s legitimacy?

 

Even the talk of challenging the current government's legitimacy becomes untenable when we consider the scenes we have repeatedly seen in various regions. Across the country, the people chant "One army... one people" and celebrate each time an area is liberated from the RSF.

 

Moreover, as the transitional constitution was being signed in Nairobi, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan was attending the emergency Arab summit in Cairo, representing Sudan as the Chairman of the Sovereignty Council and the head of its internationally recognized government. That is, no parallel government will not receive recognition. Several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, Somalia, and Türkiye, swiftly rebuffed this parallel government, while the United States, the United Kingdom, and the United Nations expressed concerns over actions that could aggravate the crisis further, reaffirming their support for Sudan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

 

Furthermore, even Darfur, which the Nairobi talks are rumored to be seeking to carve out into a separate entity as part of a project to divide Sudan, is not entirely under RSF control, nor is its population loyal to the group or willing to accept its government. The RSF has a bloody history in Darfur, and its horrific crimes, like burying Masalit people alive, remain fresh in memory, as do its massacres of particular ethnic groups- atrocities documented by international organizations that have compelled several countries to condemn the RSF for its crimes against humanity, genocide, and ethnic cleansing. Moreover, several factions and communities from Darfur have opposed the RSF and joined the army.

 

The fact is that even if this parallel government is formed, it has no hope of making the breakthrough its proponents hope for, nor will it ever receive the recognition they dream of. More importantly, it would not hinder the army’s advance. If anything, the formation of this government could strengthen the army’s resolve and its determination to reclaim the areas that remain outside of its control and hasten incursions into RSF-controlled territories in Darfur.

 

If anything good has come from the plans being cooked up in Nairobi, it is that the process has brought several matters to light and left all the cards on the table. Now, the battle lines have been drawn, and the real motives of those who support, host, finance, and back the conspiracy against Sudan have been exposed. This conspiracy, however, is on course to defeat as the army and its allies continue to advance, with the people, or most of them, rallying behind the military in this decisive battle.