This article is not a journalistic scoop, nor is it intended to defend anyone. Also, this article is not a negation of the methodology that is used to calculate the unemployment rate in Jordan. Rather, it is the result of an observation by an economic researcher. It is an attempt to correct a long-standing misconception.

 

The unemployment rate in Jordan for the first quarter of 2025 was published in all media outlets as 21.3 per cent. This is the wrong rate as it represents the unemployment rate for Jordanians only, not for all workers residing in Jordan. The correct unemployment rate in Jordan is 16.6per cent, which is much lower than the commonly used unemployment rate by media outlets of 21.3 per cent.

 

It has been customary to use the rate (21.3per cent) without mentioning that it is the unemployment rate for the Jordanian workforce only, and not for the entire labor force (Jordanians and non-Jordanians) in Jordan, which is 16.6per cent. As such, the published rate can be misunderstood, even by those who consider themselves economic experts. This is exactly what happened. The correct rate should be 16.6 per cent, not 21.3 per cent! Why? Since the early 1980s, Jordan has been using the term gross domestic product (GDP), which is the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a given country's borders during a specific period (usually one year). Here, I emphasize the word "borders". This means that the GDP represents the product of the labor of the entire labor force (Jordanian and non-Jordanian) within the geographical borders of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, not just Jordanian labour.

 

Had Jordan been using the economic measure, Gross National Product (GNP), which is the total market value of all final goods and services produced by a country's citizens (individuals and businesses) during a specific period (usually one year), then the rate 21.3 per cent applies, as it refes to the product of Jordanians, not the resident labor force in Jordan. The distinction is important.

 

Therefore, the rate that should be used when evaluating the real growth in the GDP relative to employment is 16.6 per cent for the first quarter of 2025, which is lower than the unemployment rate of 2024. Thus, signalling a significant improvement in Job creation. Furthermore, the use of the figure 21.3 per cent should always indicate that this is not the unemployment rate in Jordan, but rather the unemployment rate of Jordanians only.

 

It is worth noting that international organizations such as the International Labor Organization and the World Bank use the figure 16.6 per cent, which is the correct figure. However, despite this, television channels, as well as research centers such as the Washington Institute, most World Bank and International Monetary Fund studies, and many local, regional, and other websites and organisations, whether research or news, use 21.3 per cent. One Arab pundit claimed that Jordan has the highest unemployment rate in the region, which is not true.

 

What is the solution? Of course, because, as I mentioned earlier, we use GDP figures, we must use the total unemployment rate of 16.6 per cent, not the Jordanian unemployment rate of 21.3 per cent. But how can we escape a practice that has persisted for many years and upon which inaccurate, if not erroneous, conclusions have been based? The management of the Department of Statistics clearly understands the issue and is willing to clarify the matter. The dilemma, quite frankly, is that even if it were to explain these percentages and adopt figures closely and accurately related to GDP, some will believe it is a government move to reduce the announced unemployment rates, and the reactions will be negative, as happened when the Social Security Investment Fund debt was excluded from the total government debt.

 

The solution is to begin by explaining the differences, engaging in dialogue about them, holding awareness-raising and participatory seminars, and publishing explanatory brochures. Furthermore, publishing both rates and explaining them will help tremendously in clarifying the confusion.