AMMAN — With prosecution, compulsory military service and revenge becoming less of a concern in Syria following the recent developments, analysts argued that the question of refugees' return to their homeland is no more a guesswork but a probability. 

 

Opposition forces seized control of the capital Damascus on Sunday, forcing President Bashar Al Assad to leave the country and ending over five decades of Assad family rule. 

 

The rebel forces published videos on Telegram and other social media platforms, showing fighters opening prisons in Damascus and other cities and releasing thousands. Other videos showed rebels assuring people of safety, security and freedom while policing the crowds and traffic movement. 

 

The development has raised questions about the potential return of Syrian refugees, including those in Jordan, which hosts hundreds of thousands displaced by the conflict.

 

The UNHCR has reiterated refugees' right to return to their country whenever they choose to do so. 

 

"Any refugee return must be voluntary, dignified and safe. UNHCR has been working with all stakeholders to address what refugees identify as obstacles to their return to end their displacement," the UN refugee agency said on X platform. 

 

Meanwhile, analysts told The Jordan Times on Sunday that refugees might now consider going back home, with prosecution, military conscription and other restrictions becoming less of a concern.  

 

Former Minister of Media Affairs Samih Maaytah emphasized that Jordan will continue hosting refugees under its international commitments. However, he acknowledged that the changing political climate in Syria might encourage many to consider returning.

 

“Some left Syria due to security concerns, opposition to the government, military conscription, or financial penalties. These factors have largely been addressed by recent developments in Syria,” Maaytah, chairman of the Jordan Press Foundation.  

 

He explained that some of the refugees have homes they left back at the beginning of the war in Syria [in 2011] that they can use when they go back. "This would make their return probably easier."

 

"Jordan, once stability is restored in Syria, should work with the new Syrian government and international organisations to ensure safe repatriation and provide support for rebuilding homes."

 

“Previously, the idea of refugees returning was unrealistic due to Syria’s instability and economic struggles. Now, the situation has changed and returning to their homes is preferable to remaining in camps or working in unsuitable conditions."

 

Strategic analyst Amer Sabaileh urged caution, highlighting the complexities of refugee repatriation. "While the developments in Syria create a potential opportunity for return, the situation remains uncertain, especially for refugees in Jordan. Stability must be firmly established before any large-scale repatriation can take place."

 

Sabaileh also pointed out that Lebanon, which hosts a similarly large refugee population, may take precedence in immediate efforts due to its dire economic and social conditions. "For Jordan, the path forward remains foggy."

 

According to official figures, Jordan is home to around 1.3 million Syrians, including nearly 660,000 refugees registered UNHCR, out of more than 5 million Syrian refugees in Jordan and neighboring countries.