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    10-Dec-2020

Reflections from a Syria Envoy - By Martin Longden, Asharq Al-Awsat

 

 

Diplomats do not always speak plainly. We are careful with language for good reason: the indirect approach is often more helpful in charting the contours of agreement or greasing the wheels of international engagement. Often, but not always. The scale and the severity of the crisis in Syria requires us all to talk more bluntly and with more candor about the reality of what is unfolding – and of the dangerous folly of continuing to resist what must be done if Syria is to be saved from even greater catastrophe.
 
 
Diplomats are naturally optimistic – we are hardwired to find creative solutions to tricky issues. But we should also be realistic and honest. The scale of destruction wrought on Syria meant its rehabilitation was always going to be difficult. But the refusal of the Assad regime to engage seriously in a process of political reform, as demanded by the UN Security Council, whilst continuing its oppressive and counter-productive behaviors, has not just prolonged the misery for so many, but has wasted precious time. And time – like food and fuel – is now a commodity that Syria is running out of.
 
 
It was often said that though the regime was likely to “win” the war in Syria, it would struggle to “win” the peace: that a military victory for the regime could never fix any of the fundamental causes of the current crisis, or deliver genuine stability, security and prosperity for the Syrian people. So it has proved – definitively.
 
 
Syria now stands on the edge of a precipice. The catastrophic socio-economic crisis gripping the country presents a grave and growing threat to Syrians. The UN this month starkly warned of an additional two million Syrians now in acute humanitarian need – up to 13 million in total. Syria now tops the global league table for humanitarian funding requirements. As the steeply negative trajectory worsens with each passing week, can this desperate descent be reversed?
 
 
Not by the regime’s current approach, certainly. As winter approaches, people queue with increasing desperation for petrol and bread, as narratives from regime spokesman about “normalization” ring ever more hollow. The regime and its backers lack the resources to upright this perilously listing ship, but in any case their focus is firmly on self-preservation – for themselves and their shrinking circle of elites. Instead of engaging seriously in the UN process – a process that could genuinely move Syria to a better place and create the space for international financial support and national reconciliation – Damascus’ seeks only to stonewall. They hope perhaps that an election next year, in which of course so many Syrians will be disenfranchised, might offer a “reset” and a chance to turn the page: but how can you hope to turn a page when the very book itself is ablaze?
 
 
Syria obviously needs significant economic help – and quickly. But this help won’t come from Moscow – the financial assistance provided by Russia to Syria is minimal: indeed, the regime’s allies take from Syria, not give. Rather it is the UK, US and European partners who provide the overwhelming share of practical support to Syrians, across the whole country and beyond. But this has had to be largely humanitarian aid, focused on tackling short term needs, including food, shelter and basic education, rather than broader economic assistance. Because the UK and our partners remain clear and determined: we will not provide reconstruction support for Syria except as part of a political solution. This is not just a principled position. It also reflects, frankly, the limits of what we can do to make a positive difference.
 
 
For at its core, the issues that created and sustain the Syria crisis are political; the economic consequences are but symptoms (albeit deadly ones) of this broader malaise. Without real change to regime behaviors, and a safe environment for genuinely free and fair elections, no amount of economic assistance can restore stability to Syria, enable refugees to return to their homes or allow for national reconciliation and rebuilding. Indeed, it has been a constant struggle to ensure that the basic humanitarian assistance funneled through the UN in Damascus is not diverted and co-opted by the regime for its own political agenda. So, much as Syria desperately needs an economy that provides jobs and incomes for its people, why would Western donors risk doing more to line regime pockets and fuel the cronyism and corruption that has so rotted the Syrian state?
 
 
All of those with an interest in this crisis face a simple and stark choice. Either we work together, with speed and purpose, on a political solution that ends the instability and unlocks financial support, or we follow the only alternative path – the path which I fear we are currently on – where the socio-economic pressures and the lack of basic security lead Syria over a cliff edge. That is the fundamental choice facing the regime and its supporters today, and the moment of decision is approaching.
 
 
I said earlier that diplomats are optimistic creatures. And there are reasons not to despair. The darkest hour is before the dawn, and it is still possible to see a path, illuminated by the UN and Special Representative Geir Pedersen, to end this crisis. Internationally, no country really wins from a broken and unstable Syria, and we should be able to agree a common approach to a resolution that respects each other’s national interests. And inside Syria, those who have so far supported the regime must increasingly realize that the status quo is not sustainable – as the costs to them personally of propping up failed governance grow ever heavier. What once may have protected them has become a liability.
 
 
There is an alternative vision: of a unified, prosperous and sovereign Syria, representative of its precious diversity, and governed in the interests of all Syrians – not the tiny few. It has been my privilege in this job to begin to know Syria and its people: and I am confident that, if given the freedom, and with international support, the people of Syria – with their resilience and fortitude, their energy and determination, and their humanity and soul – can rebuild back their shattered country and realize its full potential. My fervent hope is that those with most influence on decision makers in Damascus finally do what is necessary to allow this to happen, before it is too late.
 
 

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