AMMAN — The Middle East war has dealt a significant blow to the global aviation sector, causing worldwide passenger demand to fall by 3.4 per cent in April, according to new figures released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

 

The sharp decline was driven primarily by a collapse in demand for airlines based in the Middle East, where passenger traffic plunged by more than 48 per cent compared with the same month last year.

 

Excluding the region, global passenger demand would have risen by 1.2 per cent, highlighting the extent to which the conflict has disrupted international travel, according to IATA.

 

IATA said total passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), fell by 3.4 per cent year-on-year, while airline capacity declined by 2.9 per cent. The global load factor, a key measure of how full aircraft are, slipped to 83.1 per cent.

 

International travel was particularly affected, with demand falling 5.3 per cent. Capacity on international routes declined by 5.1 per cent, while the load factor edged down to 83.9 per cent.

 

In a report sent to The Jordan Times, Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, said the impact of the war had been severe.

 

“The 46.6 per cent fall in demand for carriers in the Middle East due to war in the region was so acute that it dragged overall demand down 3.4 per cent,” he said.

 

“The situation for air transport remains highly volatile. The cost of jet fuel more than doubled in April, which is pushing air fares up. Forward schedule data is showing a reduced offering in the coming months, indicating that airlines are balancing high fuel costs and weaker demand.”

 

Despite the challenging conditions, most regions outside the Middle East continued to record growth. Asia-Pacific airlines reported a 3.0 per cent rise in international demand and achieved a record April load factor of 87.5 per cent. European carriers saw demand increase by 0.9 per cent, aided by a 15.3 per cent surge in direct traffic between Europe and Asia as travellers avoided routes through the Gulf region.

 

North American airlines recorded flat growth, while Latin American carriers posted the strongest increase at 8.9 per cent. African airlines also reported a modest rise of 2.2 per cent.

 

The Middle East remained the weakest-performing region. Passenger demand among carriers based there fell by 48.1 per cent, while load factors dropped sharply to 70.1 per cent. Although an uneasy ceasefire has slowed the rate of decline compared with March, IATA said the ongoing conflict involving Iran continues to weigh heavily on the market.

 

Domestic air travel remained broadly unchanged from a year earlier. Growth in Brazil, China and Japan was offset by declines in Australia, India and the United States.

 

Cargo market defies passenger downturn

 

While passenger traffic struggled, global air cargo demand continued to expand, rising by 4.0 per cent year-on-year in April.

 

The increase was largely driven by strong trade flows linked to Asia, although IATA warned that the headline figure masked growing pressures within the sector.

 

Major Gulf cargo hubs continued to face severe disruption as a result of the Middle East conflict, forcing operators to reroute shipments and limiting capacity on key trade corridors.

 

“Air cargo demand grew 4 per cent year-on-year in April, driven by strong Asia-linked trade flows,” Walsh said.

 

“But this positive news masks a more complex operating environment. Severe disruption at major Gulf hubs due to the war in the Middle East continued to reshape trade routes and constrain capacity on key corridors.”

 

Cargo capacity fell by 0.4 per cent globally despite the increase in demand, reflecting the strain on supply chains and airline operations.

 

Economic indicators presented a mixed picture. Global trade contracted by 2.1 per cent in March following four consecutive months of growth, while jet fuel prices surged by more than 121 per cent compared with a year earlier. However, manufacturing activity remained resilient, with purchasing managers’ surveys indicating continued expansion in global production and export orders.

 

Regionally, Asia-Pacific carriers led cargo growth with a 10.5 per cent increase in demand, followed by Africa at 7.7 per cent and Europe at 6.0 per cent. North American airlines recorded a 5.0 per cent rise.

 

Middle Eastern carriers once again faced the steepest decline, with cargo demand falling by 18.2 per cent and capacity dropping by almost 23 per cent.

 

Trade lane performance varied considerably. Routes linking Africa and Asia recorded the strongest growth, while Asia-Europe traffic also remained robust. In contrast, cargo corridors dependent on Gulf hubs continued to suffer significant disruption as the regional conflict reshaped global logistics networks.