Whenever tomato prices spike in Jordan, many of us find ourselves asking the same question: Is it because of exports? It’s a natural conclusion to draw—the idea that our produce is being "pulled" away to foreign markets, leaving locals with the bill. But while that answer is simple and popular, it misses a much deeper truth. The real issue isn't the exports themselves; it’s the way our agricultural system is built.

 

Looking back at the history of tomato prices in Jordan, we see a pattern of sharp, unpredictable swings. We’ve seen prices drop below 0.10 JOD per kilogram in some seasons, only to climb above 1.50 JOD in 2026. These peaks are getting higher, showing that our market is becoming more sensitive to small disruptions and rising costs.

 

These aren't just random events. They are symptoms of a recurring cycle of loss, surplus, and shortage. Essentially, our agricultural sector lacks the stability it needs to stay balanced.

 

What we’ve experienced recently is what economists call a "supply shock." A sudden drop in available tomatoes naturally sent prices climbing. This year, Jordan faced a "Perfect Storm"—a series of unfortunate events hitting all at once:1. Unpredictable Weather: Harsh cold spells in the Jordan Valley slowed down the ripening of crops. 2. The Planting Gap: Natural timing gaps between seasons left the market temporarily empty. 3. Farmer Hesitation: Most importantly, many farmers simply chose not to plant tomatoes this year. Why? Because they lost so much money in previous seasons when prices collapsed.

 

This creates a painful cycle: one year of losses leads to fewer crops the next year, which causes a shortage. Then, high prices tempt everyone to plant again at once, leading to a surplus and another crash.

 

While it’s easy to point fingers at exports, the facts tell a different story. In reality, when prices get too high, the government often steps in to limit or stop exports entirely. This is proof that the problem isn't external demand—it's a lack of supply at home.

 

While exports can play a small role, no solid data suggests that shipments to Israel or the Gulf were the main drivers of this year's price hike. Exports are often the "scapegoat" for a crisis that actually started in Jordan’s own fields.

 

The tomato crisis highlights a significant gap in our system: a lack of planning. In more advanced agricultural economies, there is a clear "agricultural map" that helps decide what to plant, where, and when.

 

In Jordan, these big decisions are often left to individual farmers who are forced to guess what the market will do. Without accurate information or institutional guidance, they are essentially gambling on their harvest. This instability hurts everyone—it drives up the cost of living for families and makes life precarious for the farmers we rely on.

 

The answer isn’t to ban exports. Doing so only hurts our farmers in the long run and cuts them off from the global economy. Instead, we should focus on: 1. Better Data: Giving farmers real-time info on production and prices so they can plan better. 2. Strategic Planning: Creating a national map for crop distribution. 3. Support Systems: Investing in better storage, refrigeration, and "contract farming" to protect farmers from sudden losses.

 

By moving away from "quick fix" bans and toward real structural reform, we can create a market that is fair for the farmer and affordable for the kitchen table.

 

 

The writer is a former Minister of State for Economic Affairs in Jordan