Canada’s ruling party is set to elect a former banker with little political experience on Sunday to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who is stepping down after nearly a decade in power. The new leader will face the challenge of dealing with US President Donald Trump’s threats and tariffs.

 

Mark Carney, 59, widely seen as the frontrunner in the Liberal Party leadership race, is expected to win Sunday’s vote and take over as leader of the center-left party.

 

Trudeau announced his resignation in January amid political turmoil. The winner of the leadership race will be tasked with forming a new government, though the transition is expected to take several days.

 

Carney, the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, has outpaced his rivals in local support and fundraising. His campaign has largely focused on one central question: Who is best suited to confront Trump and his policies?

 

His crisis-management credentials appear to have resonated with voters, particularly as Canada faces escalating tensions with its powerful neighbor.

 

Trump has imposed tariffs on Canadian goods and repeatedly suggested Canada should become “America’s 51st state.” His remarks have sparked outrage, with many Canadians boycotting US products and avoiding travel south of the border.

 

Stephanie Chouinard, a political science professor at Canada’s Royal Military College, says Carney’s appeal lies in his “economic expertise and seriousness.”

 

“He understands global financial systems and knows the strengths and weaknesses of Canada’s economy very well,” she said, noting that Carney has also managed to distance himself from Trudeau’s legacy.

 

With that in mind, analysts believe Carney’s main rival, Chrystia Freeland, faces slim odds. The former finance minister under Trudeau left the government amid a publicized fallout, highlighting differences in how to handle Trump’s attacks.

 

Regardless of who wins, the new leader will have to unify the party quickly ahead of the next federal election, expected by October at the latest—though an earlier vote remains a possibility. The contest could be more competitive than initially anticipated.